United States are going all out America first, moron version. This will cause enormous changes in the security policy of the world.

Here are some predictions.

Already today, a number of nations are dusting off old plans and/or creating new plans for becoming nuclear states.

Nothing will likely happen if the next US election puts someone that does America first non-moron version in power. But if not, e.g. if Musk becomes president or Vance or really any republican, then things will get very “interesting” in the next four years.

Some other predictions.

If, after the next election, US is still not understanding it lives in a global world we’ll see nukes in Poland and Turkey, possibly even Germany, Ukraine and even Sweden.

In Asia, it’s possible South Korea will become nuclear, maybe Indonesia or even Japan.

Trump and his cronies will have wound the doomsday clock to five seconds to midnight, and they will uncork the champagne, thinking they’ve done a great job.

They are after all incompetents, senile and demented. (I guess that’s also a prediction, even though everything suggests it to be a fact…)

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Header image: By Stefan Un – Flickr: DSC01071, CC BY 2.0, Link

No, Donald, you’re gambling with world war III.

Here’s a scenario.

When the US abdicates from all its alliances, most nations, with the ability, will start nuclear programs. Or restart them, or bring out the final screwdriver.

Nukes have (likely) played a huge part in creating Europe’s longest period of peace ever, with about 60% less wars in a world with nukes than one without and the number of dead incomparable.

However, if more and more nations get nukes, their archenemies will as well (just look at India and Pakistan). And the number of nuclear powers will grow exponentially until most medium-sized or large countries have them.

The next thing, we will be using small nukes in wars, because when nobody can make war with anybody, somebody will just do it anyway, threaten that nuclear power’s existence and trigger a nuclear attack. Likely a small one, wiping out a city or maybe just a city block, but still, a nuclear attack.

Next will be, every military in the world understands that nukes are now part of how you make war and nukes may even be sold like any other type of weapons, and they will be used in wars.

I’m not talking about nuclear winter, human apocalypse level of usage (that comes later) but a nuke here and a nuke there. Like a policy of mutual sacrifices of bases, towns or even cities. Think exchanging queens in chess.

Far from optimal, but we survived both Chernobyl and Fukushima, surely we can survive this… I mean, unless we happen to be in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Unfortunately, once nukes are used in wars they will be abandoned, lost and captured in wars. Sometimes these nukes will end up in the hands of third parties without a nuclear capacity themselves. E.g. terrorist organizations.

Sooner or later one such third party will use such a captured nuke to either set off a dirty bomb or even the nuke itself in the wrong capital with several hundreds of thousands or even millions dead.

The leader of the afflicted country will basically have two choices: Take crap for not reacting, or strike back with a vengeance. And some really big dominoes starts falling… Sooner or later the wrong one will fall, and we’ll get that nuclear winter and humanity on the brink of destruction.

Not to mention that when nukes are in every army and are being used in wars, the thing that prevented world wars are gone. Sure, we may be able to do world wars with limited usage of nukes, but even without total nuclear war, world wars will again reap hundreds of millions of lives. If not billions…..

You may think the US’s main role in NATO is to protect Europe from Russia. It’s not. The main role, the main purpose of NATO, from a US perspective is non-proliferation of nukes in Europe, and in the extension, the rest of the world.

As long as the US is a guarantee of a rule based world order where smaller or medium-sized countries are protected from larger nuclear powers, there is no need for these countries to get their own nukes and start the falling of the dominoes.

The way the US conducts security policy today. Dominoes are falling. And when the last one has fallen, America will no longer be first.